baseball predictions '10

There are three things that lead to a Verndale Fantasy Championship: The Draft, The Person, and Luck. With this in mind, let’s take a look at who ultimately has a shot (alphabetically based on team name):

The goddamn stupid smiley face team (no team name, or lack thereof, has bothered me as much as this one). Maybe Jon is doing this just so I’ll be so upset with him that I’ll, by default, rank him in the coveted 13th slot.

 Up- Braun, Howard. Braun seems to be Mr. Consistency and I’d assume he’d be a top five pick again next year. Anyone see Ryan Howard lately? Dude lost about 30 bills and looks like a rock. Does that help? It can’t hurt. Maybe he should share his dietary tips with the true vegetarian, Prince Fielder. On a side note, that guy must eat gardens worth of veggies every day. Carpenter, could be spectacular or could be a disaster. This team will succeed or fail based on his pitching staff.
 Future- Posey, Laporta, Reimold, Morgan, Morrow: I like that Jon has a lot of young boys on his team, but it’s kind of worrisome too, isn’t it? It’s my prediction that only two of these players will be on his roster by year’s end. I’ll go even further by predicting that Posey and Reimold are the only two.
 Please Retire… NOW- Vladdy and Hideki. There’s a part of me that thinks Hideki still has something in his tank, but I have a feeling Vlad is done.
 Bold Prediction- Michael Young gets named as the newest player to have taken steroids or suffers some sort of weird accident that will sideline him for the rest of the year. Not sure why, but I have a feeling that bad things will happen to him.

Big and Tall

 Up- Miggy Cabrera, I guess, needs to be listed in the “up” category. Two things crack me up about this guy. One- his belly. Two- Everyone quickly guess at how old he is. I could believe it when I saw it, but the dude is only 27. I really thought he was in his early 30s. I don’t think I could ever route for an out-of-shape wife beater. My wife, who knows nothing, wanted to see who Craigger had on his team. She only knows Red Sox players and noticed he had Buchholz on his team and then she noticed Derek Lowe. At this point she said, whoa, his team is going to be really good. Take that for what it’s worth, but I wouldn’t put either of those guys in the “up” category.
 Future- Wieters, Andrus, Jones, McCutchen, Hanson. Unlike Jon boy’s team, I like these young boys. Unlike Jon’s team, I think all of these players will be on Craigger’s team by year’s end. Andrus is the only question mark, but could provide a little bit of speed to an otherwise slow bunch of characters.
 Please Retire… NOW- Lowe. Craig’s team is pretty young. With that said, it would shock me if Lowe was a major contributor this year. His age also shocked me- 37 in June.
 Bold Prediction- Grady Sizemore continues his fantasy downfall and is no more than a mid to late round pick next year.

Big Nasty

 Up- Good news for Nasty, but there’s not too much upside on his team (he always wants me to pick him to finish last). Utley should and will be a monster again this year. I hate the Phillies, but I love Utley. How is this possible? I haven’t done this, but will do so in a minute, but look at Nasty’s team and tell me who he selected with his second draft choice. Hard, right? How about his third pick? I’m telling you, I can’t tell who he kept and who he selected with his second and third picks. He could’ve traded these two picks for someone really good.
 Future- Escobar, Choo, and I’ll throw 27-year-old Reynolds in here too. Just a guess (unlike all of this other useless babble), but my prediction is that Choo is going to explode and that Escobar will be off of this team by the all-star break. Besides his owner, Big Nasty, Mr. Choo has the best name in sports. Love it.
 Please Retire… NOW- Most of his team: Posada, Damon, Wells, Aardsma, Bell, Pettite, Rivera, Ibanez. Now that I’m looking at this list, I’m a little worried that someone on this team may actually die during the season. Damn, they’re old.
 Bold Prediction- Nasty’s team finishes in first. Hahaha… I crack me up.

Big Pappa Pump

 Up- Pujols, Upton Sr., Verlander. Of course, Pujols always worries you about breaking down, but he hasn’t yet and when he doesn’t break down, there’s no one even close to him. With so much attention on younger brother, Justin, BJ is going to have a monster year. Verlander will be dominant.
 Future- Stewart, Zobrist, Morales, Blanks, Snider, Price, Strasburg, Davis. As much talent as Amanti’s team has, this team is absolutely stacked with prospects. My thinking are that the hitting prospects will hit all year, but the pitching prospects of Price, Strasburg, and Davis will come into their own around August. This team is going to be very hard to beat in the playoffs… a little foreshadowing.
 Please Retire… NOW- Not a single person.
 Bold Prediction- Mark will be humble when he wins it all.

Bush Leaguers

 Up- Longoria, Holliday, Haren. Longoria seems primed for a monster year, Holliday seems primed to take his first step downward, and Haren will have another great first half and then forgot how to pitch in the second. So, yes, this is the “up” section and I believe all of these guys could be outstanding. They just scare me more than others in the up sections.
 Future- Sandoval, Davis, Heyward, Wood, Jackson. I have to admit, I had no idea who this Austin Jackson kid was. Looks like he’s making quite the first impression. As with most speed guys, it’ll be interesting to see if his average can hang in there to keep him in the leadoff spot. Sandoval could either follow in the footsteps of fellow chubster, Miggy Cabrera, or have a terrible sophomore slump. My guess is more toward the Miggy side. Who’s this Heyward kid. Is he supposed to be good?
 Please Retire… NOW- Abreu. Not too many old folks on this team. Could be good for consistency long term.
 Bold Prediction- Josh Johnson turns out to be the best pitcher on Kyle’s staff this year.

Buzzsaw

 Up- Mauer, Halladay. With such a short list in the “up” category, you obviously can see why I’m not too, too excited for the near future of Buzzsaw.
 Future- Beckham, Upton, Butler, Anderson, Nolasco. Not too sure about these pitchers, but people are expecting big things from Beckham, Upton, and Butler. Let’s hope “they” are right, because if they’re not, I’ll be hanging out with Nasty.
 Please Retire… NOW- Berkman. Yes, I could have put Jeter into this category, but I’m expecting him to repeat his 2009 performance. Liriano and Harden may shoot themselves if their arms fall off in April… would that count as retirement?
 Bold Prediction- Josh Hamilton returns to his 2008 year… but unfortunately, so does Mauer.

dc (the most creative name)

 Up- Wright, King Felix. I’m a huge Mets fan and by default, I’m pretty dumb. But c’mon, how does Wright go from a 40 homerun guy to a 15 homerun guy or whatever he turned out to be last year. Either he hops back on the juice or he gets left out of my “up” category from this point forward. As for the King, I feel like he’s the real deal.
 Future- Tulowitzki, can I put 28 year old Aaron Hill in this category? Dan didn’t go after any hot shot rookies this year. Does he know something we don’t… or does he simply not know any of the big prospects. Only time will tell.
 Please Retire… NOW- Wolf, Wood. I guess Dan’s team is full of a bunch of 27-30 year olds.
 Bold Prediction- Dan never wins the average category at all throughout the entire season.

GreenMountain Gamers

 Up- Hanley, Kemp, Lincecum. Not even really a question, Amanti has the best three up guys. Can three guys win a championship? Well, three of the top four guys drafted last year were Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Grady Sizemore. You wouldn’t win a damn thing with those three. Shit happens. Do I wish I had these three? Hell yeah, but that’s probably another huge red flag.
 Future- I could’ve put these guys in the “up” category, but Lind and Zimmerman are young and good. Not gonna lie, Amanti’s offense is stacked.
 Please Retire… NOW- Konerko. I really thought he called it quits a few years ago. I was shocked when I saw this selection come up. This is the first player that I think will really retire during this season.
 Bold Prediction- Amanti will find a way to screw up this season.

Memorial Crusaders

 Up- Gonzalez, Beckett, Sabathia, K-Rod, Paplebon. I feel like saves are going to be hard to come by this year. With Paplebon and K-Rod (plus Soria), Big G should do well in this category. I actually think this is by far and away the best pitching staff. However, as we know, you either go strong in one area or another and his offense line-up won’t scare anyone. I think he’ll have to be smart and look to make some moves sooner rather than later.
 Future- He has a bunch of young players that could be the future, but the names have been around for awhile: Lopez, Bruce, Cruz. I like these boys, but not enough to save his offense.
 Please Retire… NOW- Hoffman. Much like Konerko, I can’t believe he’s still playing and is still considered one of the upper echelon closers in the game. If my kid doesn’t kick footballs for a living, she’s going to learn how to throw a fastball well enough to get three people out every few nights. These guys have it made.
 Bold Prediction- Adrian Gonzalez wins the homerun title this year.

Pink Ladies

 Up- Teixeira, Kinsler. What did this kid spend so much time on during each and every pick? Was he trying a new method of picking the worst available? As always, he continually finds way to entertain me.
 Future- Hahahahahahahahahahaha…. I think his youngest player is 35.
 Please Retire… NOW- This is great. Lee, ManRam, Ortiz, Jones, Ordonez, and the ones that shouldn’t retire, shouldn’t be on any fantasy team. You think you Verndale boys could cut the kid some slack before our next draft to let him out of work so that he can do some research on viable fantasy options?
 Bold Prediction- Ryan will be upset with what I just wrote.

Quevin

 Up- Fielder, Crawford. Laurel and Hardy would be proud of these two. One a big and fat vegetarian who crushes the ball to a steroid injected little guy who is pretty quick around the base paths. Good foundation for his offense. Throw in a little Youk and a little Bay and his offense will be ok.
 Future- Kendrick, Ethier, Pence. I like Ethier and Pence and know that Kendrick can battle for a batting title, but what else does he bring to the table. At least you know that Pence will be hitting bombs this year.
 Please Retire… NOW- Not too many on this team, but another injury for Dice-K and he could begin to think of the warm beaches of Japan.
 Bold Predictions- Kevin gets a call from the PBA and decides that cleaning his balls before every throw is more entertaining than this boring fantasy league.

THE RICK

 Up- A-Rod, Santana. I kind of feel bad for Rick when his only viable keepers were Broxton and McCann. I was glad he had the third slot and was able to get juicy mcjuicerson. At least little dick will hit some homeruns for him. As for my boy, Santana, I’d love to predict the Cy Young for him, but know doing so will lead to disaster, so instead I’ll call him a huge injury risk and quickly move on.
 Future- Werth, Bard. Rick- I’ll give you a little tip… You can trade Jayson Werth to the kid who likes his girls a little on the big side and he’ll give you anyone on his team. I think Werth is going to be good, I just don’t know if he’ll crack the top 20 of next year’s draft. As for Bard, all I know is that he throws the ball twice as hard as Craigger.
 Please Retire… NOW- Helton, Lidge, Wagner. This team is not young, but I don’t feel like I can put productive guys into this category like Lee or Furcal. He probably picked these guys to give the senior presence in the clubhouse.
 Bold Prediction- The new guy is going to use this year to prove that subsequent years can only get better.

Ok, now that we’ve looked at lineups, it’s time to delve into what type of fantasy owners we’re dealing with in this league. Again, alphabetical based on team name:

Jon- My take on Jon is that he can take something great and make it pretty mediocre pretty quickly. Last year his foundation, his keepers, were Hanley Ramirez and Ryan Braun. Are you kidding me? I’ll tell you this much, if Amanti wants advice on how to build a club with two top five guys as your keepers, he’s not running to Jon. Well, to be honest, he’s not running anywhere, but definitely not to Jon if he does decide to go for a jog. Out of all of the owners, he may be the least engaged, too. I only reminded everyone to submit their keepers for about three weeks, yet Jon needed three weeks and two days to get it done. He has more important things to do rather than read this junk. I can write this because Jon has long since stopped reading this blog.

Craigger- This is fun. As many of you know Craigger is a great friend of mine who has allowed himself to be the human punching bag as long as I’ve known him. Amanti and I have thoroughly enjoyed having him around. In the past few years, he’s learned to defend himself in a weird reptilian manner by standing on his toes while leaning forward. Amanti and I back off as soon as the pose is struck as we are worried that he’s soon going to attack. So, please know that you can do or say anything to Craigger during this fantasy season, but be careful when he gets on his toes.

As far as fantasy goes, Craigger won our fantasy football league (the other league we’re in), so he’s going to be riding that for awhile. However, I believe he’s been finishing dead last or close to it in his two Verndale seasons. As mentioned above, when he gets a little intimidated, he doesn’t live up to his potential. It’s up to us, to keep the fear alive inside of him and we will always be able to collect his $100 donation.

Nasty- I’ve always liked this kid. Remember back a few years ago when a lot of you came up for Amanti’s birthday party in his garage. I really thought Big G and Nasty were going to sit on me and give me wedgies and hang me from the ceiling. When this didn’t happen, I knew then that they were just big cuddly teddy bears that had a big roar, but a soft inside. How does this relate to fantasy? It doesn’t. I just know that I can say anything I want and not have to be worried about my life. So, in the same breath, Matt knows that I never like his drafted fantasy teams. This is a blessing for him. I think this year is a typical year for him as he is still picking up the people he remembers back when he didn’t have a job or anything better to do with his time. Now that he’s in love and has other distractions, this could be the end of him having any chance ever again in fantasy sports.

Mark- I've known Mark for quite a while now. Unlike Big G and Big Nasty, Mark has actually tried to fight me in Amanti's basement. Completely unprovoked, he rose up and took a full swinging haymaker at me. Lucky for me, I'm quick and easily got out of the way. What's this have to do with fantasy? Well, for starters, I need to be nice to him. Second, you never know what he's going to do. We all thought he'd be the last one signed into the draft, yet he was the third one to be ready. We all thought he didn't do any research, but he got the best prospects out of everyone. The kid is a bit tricking and that's scary. He's been in the running before, and besides a blast on Barry Bonds' last at bat, he would be a defending champ. Could this be the year of the Pump? As with Mark, you never know.

Kyle- Speak softly and everyone will listen. This is what I think of when I think of Kyle (not that I’m thinking about you often, buddy). I enjoy his deadly silence as he meticulously builds champion after champion. I was disappointed to see him be able to draft on Saturday as I believe he always should be handicapped in some way when going against this cast of characters. Kyle obviously knows way too much about fantasy or is way too lucky as he will always find a way to win.

Jeff- I don’t know anyone else’s true fantasy knowledge, but where I always screw myself is by listening to the “others” too much. Now with my handy dandy iPhone, I do download fantasy podcasts and listen to them all of the time. In my other league, some random dude on one of these podcasts thought Ian Kinsler was going to be a flop this year. I immediately withdrew his name from my keeper list. Two or three years ago, Lincecum got roughed up in his first two starts and again someone told me that he’d never last in the major leagues. Goodbye, waivers you go. On the golf course, I have someone talking in my head to me all of the time, too, which proves to provide its own comic relief. I need to seriously see an exorcist or stop listening to all of these voices. So, in short, I’m brilliant, it’s these other people that are morons.

Dan- I’ve never met the man, Dan. Out of every returning owner, he’s the one I know the least. As many people have seen, there’s really only four or five people who consistently make a run for the playoffs in our league. Sure, there’s your rogue participant (Nasty) from year to year, but on average, it’s the same five guys every year with a chance to win it all. I’m not sure if Dan has ever won any of our championships, but he’s always right there. He could be the Ernie Els of our league. If he was around at any other point besides when Tiger (Kyle) was in this league, he may have won multiple championships.

Amanti- Oh how time has changed. Amanti has never been super prepared for a draft, but when he finally does some research, it usually works out for him. I’m not sure what the issues are with being a doctor and all, but in the last five years, Amanti’s fantasy prowess has really taken a nose dive. It’s not at all weird or unusual to look at his team at the end of the year and see him on the bottom. As mentioned above, he has the best lineup (not even really that close). If he screws this up, he’ll be held in the same regard as Jon. If he does well with this loaded team, he may work himself into the good graces of the fantasy guru.

Big G- I’ve tried everything with this kid. I’ve picked him to make the playoffs. I’ve picked him to finish at the bottom. I’ve picked him to at least contend. Nothing works. As you’ll see with the next section, there needs to be a little luck associated with fantasy in order to make good teams great. Big G has negative luck. Anything that can go wrong with his team, not only goes wrong, but then seemingly starts a domino process which then makes everything else deteriorate. I feel badly for the big guy, but he is the Jack from Lost of our league…. He’s screwed no matter what.

Cousin- Hahaha, I don’t even know where to begin with this kid. Obviously the thing so fresh in my head is the thought and consideration put into each and every pick… only to have the pick chosen be the absolute worst out of anything he could’ve been contriving in his little brain. You can tell that he takes this fantasy thing serious, but at what point do you begin to feel badly about someone who wants something so badly, but always falls short? I always want to put my arm around the big fella and tell him it’s going to be ok. This is going to be yet another painful year for him and I’ve reached the empathetic stage with him and feel like I may trade him someone younger than my dad to play for his team. It’s really, really sad when someone crumbles right before your eyes. Stay away from the ledge, big guy, it’ll be all right.

Kevin- I bet Kevin and I would be good friends if I lived in Boston. He’s a bit of a nut who rarely thinks about what he’s going to do before he does it. Much like me, he lives without any conscious recourse for decisions that he makes and that allows him to fly by the seat of his pants. To me, this is how he usually picks his fantasy teams. He doesn’t care what anyone says, he goes with his gut and he’s fine with the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat that comes from this laissez-fare attitude. With such a wild card mentality, he usually is on one side of the spectrum or the other at the end of each fantasy season.

Ricky Bobby- The new guy. What can I say? He took over for a guy who loved NASCAR and drugs and he has a name that comes from NASCAR and drugs. There has to be some logical connection. It’s always fun to assume what someone looks like without ever meeting them. Without ever meeting him or Dan, I would say they look pretty similar- normal short brown hair (a little more on top than the sides), six footish, used to be athletic but there now is the beginnings of a little belly starting to show (3 months pregnant maybe), and at one point they probably seriously tried to go the moustache route without much success. With my accurate roster predictions, I don’t think it’s likely that we’ll see Rick in the playoffs, but if we do, it’ll show me a lot about what type of fantasy guy he is.

The last piece of all of this is the undeniable aspect of luck. Let’s face it, some of us have it, others don’t. Again, to reference Lost, it sometimes seems that no matter what we do or who we draft, we’re destined for failure or success. Kyle’s football team this past year is a perfect example. Mark (I can use his name here because he stopped reading a long time ago) drafted three TEs for him and he still either made a run for the playoffs or got into the playoffs (can’t remember). This should never have happen, but either he finds a way, or some mysterious black cloud of smoke creature finds a way to lead him into playoff contention every year. Then there’s Big G who we could all trade him our number one picks and he’d still miss the playoffs. I don’t get it, but I know there’s something bigger controlling the Verndale destiny. As I’m sure you’re all tired of reading this book, here’s a simply number rank of the luckiest versus the unluckiest in the league (one being the luckiest):

12- Big G
11- Jon
10- Craigger
9- Jeff
8- Ricky (just throwing him in somewhere)
7- Nasty
6- Amanti
5- Nasty
4- Mark
3- Dan
2- Kyle
1- Cousin… and he still sucks

Ok, with this entire compilation of data, analysis, and pure factual information, here’s how things are going to pan out this year:

13th- Big Nasty
11th- Memorial Crusaders
10th- THE RICK
9th- Pink Ladies
8th- dc
7th- 
6th- Buzzsaw
5th- Pump
4th- Craigger
3rd- Quevin
2nd- Bush
1st- Gamers

Playoffs

Round One:

Quevin vs Buzzsaw= Buzzsaw
Craigger vs Pump= Pump

Round Two

Gamers vs Buzzsaw= Gamers
Bush vs Pump= Pump

Championship

Pump vs Gamers= Pump (thank me later, Mark)